Is Lake Chad Dying? Discover the Shocking Truth About Climate Change's Devastating Toll!

On May 4, 2023, the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will gather for its 1344th session to address the pressing issue of climate change and its impact on the security crises in the Lake Chad Basin and the Sahel regions. This session underscores the growing recognition within the AU of climate change as a significant factor exacerbating existing vulnerabilities and conflicts in these regions.

The PSC's meeting will feature remarks from several key figures, including Nasir Aminu, Permanent Representative of Nigeria to the AU and Chair of the PSC for May, and Bankole Adeoye, Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS). Other notable speakers include Moses Vilakati, Commissioner for Agriculture, Rural Development, Blue Economy, and Sustainable Environment (ARBE); Mamadou Tangara, High Representative and Special Representative of the Chairperson of the Commission and Head of the AU Liaison Office in Mali/Sahel; and Marie Jose Samba Ovono Obono, Special Representative of the Chairperson of the Commission and Head of the AU Liaison Office in Chad. Representatives from the Lake Chad Basin Commission and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) will also provide statements.

Since its 585th session in March 2016, the climate, peace, and security agenda has been a recurring topic for the PSC, which has committed to annual discussions on the interrelationship between climate change and security. The urgency surrounding this topic has intensified, leading to an increase in sessions focused on this nexus—now totaling over 18 sessions. Notably, this upcoming meeting will be the first to specifically focus on the crises in the Lake Chad Basin and the Sahel.

The crises in these regions are multifaceted, characterized by a complex socio-ecological system where environmental stress, demographic pressures, governance deficits, and insecurity interact. The PSC has consistently referred to climate change as a “threat multiplier,” emphasizing its role in worsening existing vulnerabilities rather than as a direct cause of conflict. In its 1301st session in September 2025, the PSC highlighted that climate change exacerbates vulnerabilities, heightens insecurity, and undermines livelihoods, contributing to food insecurity, forced migration, conflict, and economic disruption due to extreme weather events like droughts and floods.

In the Lake Chad Basin, the revised Regional Strategy for Stabilisation, Recovery, and Resilience (RS SRR 2.0) for areas affected by Boko Haram attributes the shrinkage of Lake Chad to climate change and desertification. The lake's surface area has dramatically decreased from approximately 25,000 km² in the 1960s to about 1,300 km² in the 1980s—a staggering reduction of nearly 90%. Currently, its area fluctuates between 8,000 and 14,000 km², depending on rainfall. While communities around the lake have historically adapted to these fluctuations, recent environmental changes are straining their adaptive capacities, compounded by rapid population growth and ongoing conflict that further degrade local conditions.

The Sahel region is among the most vulnerable areas to climate change globally, experiencing rising temperatures at 1.5 times the global average, with projections indicating an increase of at least 2°C by 2040. This is alarming for populations heavily dependent on agriculture, pastoralism, and fishing—sectors that employ 60 to 80 percent of the local workforce. The African Climate Risk Assessment has identified climate-related security risks in the Sahel, arising from environmental stress and structural fragility. The competition over land and water resources often ignites conflicts, with armed groups exploiting these tensions to recruit individuals facing economic hardship.

Governance and institutional capacity are pivotal in managing the climate-security nexus. The PSC has emphasized that climate stress leads to insecurity mainly in contexts where state institutions are weak or non-existent. Limited capacity to regulate resource use and mediate disputes often results in localized tensions escalating into broader violence. Extremist organizations, adept at exploiting these conditions, have embedded themselves within local socio-economic systems, leveraging grievances linked to marginalization and state neglect.

This governance challenge is further complicated by existing early warning systems that are primarily reactive and inadequately equipped to integrate climate indicators like rainfall variability and drought cycles. The PSC’s 1114th session on October 18, 2022, advocated for the incorporation of such indicators into early warning frameworks to better link environmental stress with peace and security responses. However, limitations in accessing climate finance and technological gaps continue to constrain countries in these regions from effectively addressing climate-related risks.

The movement of people in search of water, pasture, and economic opportunities has long been a coping mechanism for communities in the Lake Chad Basin and the Sahel. Yet, poorly regulated cross-border movements have resulted in localized clashes, particularly in resource-scarce areas. Large-scale displacement, exacerbated by both conflict and climate shocks, pressures host communities, especially in urban areas with limited infrastructure.

As these dynamics create a feedback loop between climate stress and conflict, conventional security responses alone may not suffice for stabilization. The AU has established normative frameworks, such as the African Union Climate Change and Resilient Development Strategy and Action Plan (2022–2032), aiming to address the complex interplay of climate, peace, and security.

The expected outcome of the PSC's session is a communiqué expressing grave concern regarding the deteriorating security situation in the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin, particularly in Mali, while highlighting the role of climate change in amplifying existing vulnerabilities. The PSC is likely to underscore the RS SRR 2.0 as a vital framework for addressing these multifaceted challenges and emphasize the necessity of mobilizing adequate support for its effective implementation. Moreover, the PSC may call for improved governance and state presence, crucial for preventing climate pressures from translating into conflict, and stress the importance of equitable access to climate finance, necessitating increased international support for African-led initiatives.