Balen Shah's Shocking Election Strategy: Will He Win or Lose Everything on March 5?

In a stunning upset during the 2022 local elections, Balendra Shah, elected as an independent, defeated candidates from major parties such as the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML to become the Mayor of Kathmandu Metropolitan City. His victory was celebrated as a significant shift in the political landscape of Nepal, particularly as it was fueled by a wave of youth activism against corruption and misgovernance.

However, after taking office, Shah retreated from public and political engagement, leading to criticism for his apparent disengagement from constituents and political circles. Critics noted that he often failed to meet with even his supporters, which raised concerns about his commitment to the responsibilities of his position. This trend seems to have shifted recently, as Shah has begun a series of meetings aimed at re-engaging with various political stakeholders as the March 2024 elections approach.

The interim government led by Sushila Karki has announced that elections for the House of Representatives will take place on March 5, 2024, prompting Shah to re-enter the political fray. A close aide revealed that the mayor has decided to actively participate in the upcoming electoral process.

Shah's involvement in the recent Gen Z movement, which was instrumental in the ousting of the KP Sharma Oli-led coalition government on September 9, has positioned him as a key figure in the evolving political landscape. During the protests, he utilized social media to advocate for the dissolution of Parliament and the formation of a citizens' government, aligning himself with the demands of youthful demonstrators.

In a series of meetings held this week at the Lalitpur residence of his chief adviser, Kumar Ben, Shah has engaged with prominent political figures, including Dr. Bhagawan Koirala, Binod Chaudhary, a billionaire businessman, and Nepali Congress leader Chandra Bhandari. On the following day, he continued his discussions with Congress leader Sunil Sharma, Energy, Water Resources and Irrigation Minister Kulman Ghising, Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) chair Rabi Lamichhane, and former Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai, among others. The presence of such influential leaders at Shah's meetings highlights his growing significance in Nepal's political arena.

Bhattarai subsequently advised Shah to foster unity among new and alternative political forces, emphasizing the importance of collaboration among those seeking change. He stated, "I have consistently argued that all new and alternative forces should move forward together, and that is precisely what I am working towards." This sentiment resonates with the goals of the Gen Z movement, as many young activists have also urged Shah to take a leading role as a guardian figure within their ranks.

Shah has indicated his intention to enter national politics and gauge support from various sectors. He reassured Gen Z representatives of his commitment to the existing constitutional framework, a move aimed at solidifying trust with the youth who have grown skeptical of political leaders. Gen Z representative Raksha Bam confirmed that Shah expressed his intention to collaborate with them, based on his commitment to the current federal democratic system.

Despite this renewed enthusiasm, doubts linger regarding Shah's commitment to the three-tier federal system, especially given his previous choice to abstain from voting for provincial seats during the 2022 elections. On Monday night, Shah also held discussions with RSP chair Lamichhane that reportedly spanned over six hours, where speculation arose about the possibility of him emerging as a prime ministerial candidate under the RSP banner. However, Lamichhane later refuted any such proposals.

In light of perceived reluctance from the RSP to fully cooperate, Shah has initiated these meetings independently, signaling a shift in his political strategy. A member of his secretariat noted that this series of discussions could be a strategic move to apply pressure on Lamichhane, particularly as there is speculation that a failure to reach an agreement could result in significant setbacks for the RSP.

Following these meetings, speculation has intensified regarding Shah's political affiliation and the potential for him to contest the elections under the banner of the Desh Bikash Party, which is already registered with the Election Commission. Close associates of Shah suggest that once he formally announces his party alignment, he could attract a large number of former RSP members and other political figures who have previously distanced themselves from the party.

Shah's earlier aspirations to unite the RSP and Ghising's newly formed Ujyalo Nepal Party have faltered, leading to his current path toward establishing a more direct political presence. Discussions between Shah and Ghising have suggested a potential collaboration, contrasting sharply with the inconclusive interactions with Lamichhane.

As Kathmandu prepares for the impending elections, the political landscape remains dynamic, with Shah at the center of this evolving narrative. His next steps will likely influence not only his political future but also the broader trajectory of Nepal's governance and youthful activism.