You Won’t Believe How the Middle East Smartphone Market is Set to Explode by 20%—Here's What You Need to Know!

The smartphone market in the Middle East, excluding Turkey, ended 2025 on a robust note, according to research from Omdia. In the fourth quarter alone, shipments surged by 20% year-over-year, reaching approximately 14.9 million units. This marks the third consecutive quarter of double-digit growth in the region. The driving forces behind this growth were primarily replacement demand in key Gulf markets, bolstered by upcoming flagship launches, expanded installment payment plans, trade-in programs, and a retail boost from tourism and holiday shopping seasons.

Looking at the full year, smartphone shipments in the Middle East hit 54.8 million units in 2025, reflecting a 13% increase compared to 2024. This achievement marks the third consecutive year of double-digit growth, indicating the market's ongoing expansion as it gradually transitions into a more mature and value-oriented structure. At this juncture, companies are recognizing that profitability and competitive positioning are becoming as crucial as the sheer volume of shipments.

Saudi Arabia stood out as the largest market during the fourth quarter of 2025, with shipments climbing by 14% year-over-year, constituting around 27% of the overall market. This growth was attributed to steady replacement demand and increased efforts to replenish channels. The UAE also saw a 12% growth rate, driven by a concentrated retail system that encourages replacement demand, alongside product update cycles and promotional initiatives. Kuwait experienced an 8% increase, while Qatar's market grew by 6%, primarily due to replacement demand. Other Middle Eastern markets benefited significantly from improved device supply and expanded manufacturer channel coverage, while Iraq maintained considerable scale despite a slight weakening in performance, showcasing sustained demand amid market volatility.

Omdia's Chief Analyst, Manish Pravinkumar, noted that Samsung and Apple dominated the year-end sales cycle in the region, together accounting for approximately half of the shipments in Q4 2025. Replacement demand remains concentrated among vendors with strong brand ecosystems and clear product line strategies. Samsung's growth was largely fueled by its Galaxy S25 series, alongside models like the Galaxy A36, A56, and A16. Apple experienced steady growth, propelled by upgrade demand for the iPhone 17 and active retail efforts in key Gulf markets, further cementing its dominance in the premium and mid-to-high-end segments.

Pravinkumar mentioned that Honor emerged as the fastest-growing major vendor in the fourth quarter, with shipments soaring by 94% year-over-year. The positive reception of its expanded X series and a more premium market positioning contributed significantly to its retail success. Although Transsion faced a decline, it continued to shift toward a more cost-effective product portfolio, with its TECNO brand performing well in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait. Additionally, Xiaomi gradually strengthened its channel promotion for higher-priced models, including the Note 15 Pro and Xiaomi 15T.

As for future projections, Pravinkumar warned that smartphone shipments in the region are expected to decline by 10% in 2026, largely due to tightening supply conditions, a slowdown that may exceed the global average. Manufacturers could prioritize larger markets like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which continue to see demand for premium devices, bolstered by tourism development, infrastructure investments, and established installment financing systems. Conversely, price-sensitive markets such as Iraq may remain vulnerable to policy changes, import costs, and consumer purchasing power constraints. With rising component costs and a more selective allocation of supply, it is anticipated that Apple and Samsung will maintain stable performance. In contrast, Chinese OEMs that rely heavily on shipment volume growth may face greater challenges in balancing market share and profitability. Over the long term, beyond 2026, the Middle East market is projected to shift toward a more stable, replacement-driven growth model, moving away from the pronounced fluctuations seen in recent years.