You Won’t Believe How Kyler Murray Could Ignite Vikings to 10+ Wins—And What It Means for the Broncos!

The NFL free agency period has brought significant changes to team projections for the upcoming season, with a notable shift in win totals. Before the free agency began, 11 teams were projected to achieve a remarkable 10.5 wins. Now, following a flurry of player movements — with the NFL Draft still on the horizon in late April — the Baltimore Ravens have emerged at the top, boasting a win total of 11.5.

Joining the Ravens with a formidable standing are the Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, Los Angeles Rams, Philadelphia Eagles, Seattle Seahawks, and San Francisco 49ers, all sitting at 10.5 wins. On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Arizona Cardinals and Miami Dolphins, both of whom have transitioned away from their starting quarterbacks from last season, are tied for the lowest projection at just 4.5 wins.

The shifting landscape of team win totals has drawn the attention of betting analysts, including Matt Bowen, Joe Fortenbaugh, Liz Loza, Pamela Maldonado, Eric Moody, Ben Solak, and Seth Walder. They have offered their insights and best bets regarding which teams may exceed or fall short of their win projections. In addition, Mike Clay has provided his own projections for the upcoming season.

Bowen expressed optimism about the Ravens, stating, “Landing Trey Hendrickson after backing out of the trade for Maxx Crosby following a failed physical is a win for the Ravens. I’m a big believer in new head coach Jesse Minter, too.” He noted that Baltimore possesses significant talent at crucial positions, making them a strong contender for the AFC North title. Yet, Bowen cautioned, “the team did lose key players via free agency,” leading him to bet the under on their high win total.

Clay's projection for the Ravens stands at 11.2 wins, suggesting a slight decline from expectations, reflecting Bowen’s concerns.

Meanwhile, Loza highlighted the Carolina Panthers, who are coming off their first playoff appearance since 2017 following an impressive turnaround, having improved from a 5-12 record the previous season. “Dan Morgan has used the offseason to further propel the team’s turnaround, adding depth to the offensive line, reuniting Bryce Young with former college teammate John Metchie, and significantly upgrading the defense,” she explained. Clay projects the Panthers at 7.3 wins, indicating optimism about their growth.

In Chicago, Bowen believes the Bears can achieve 10 wins, citing the development of quarterback Caleb Williams and the potential for further roster improvements. Clay’s projection for the Bears is slightly lower at 9.4 wins, but still suggests a positive trajectory.

Conversely, Fortenbaugh expressed skepticism regarding the Denver Broncos, who recorded a 14-3 season but face potential regression. He noted that Sean Payton's team had an impressive 11-2 record in one-score games last season, a trend that might not hold. With the Broncos being the eighth healthiest team last year, concerns about maintaining that level of luck loom large. Clay projects Denver to finish with 10.5 wins, but Fortenbaugh's analysis raises red flags.

The Detroit Lions also enter the 2026 season with doubts. Moody pointed out their struggles last season, which ended without a playoff berth, highlighting injuries that exposed depth issues in the secondary. He noted limited upgrades during free agency, with Clay projecting the Lions at 11.3 wins, a number that may be overly optimistic given their challenges.

As for the Green Bay Packers, Solak expressed concerns about their offseason departures, suggesting that while none were blue-chip players, their cumulative losses amount to a significant impact on team performance. Clay projects the Packers at 9.2 wins, indicating a need for careful monitoring of their roster changes.

On a more positive note, Maldonado pointed to the Houston Texans as a team that could surprise. With a strong defensive core and improvements on offense, she argues that even with regression in their plus-17 turnover margin, they could contend for 10-11 wins. Clay’s projection for the Texans is 9.4 wins, reflecting a cautious yet hopeful outlook.

Not to be overlooked, the Minnesota Vikings are entering a new era with quarterback Kyler Murray. Walder expressed optimism about Murray’s potential impact, considering the Vikings' past success with average quarterback play. Clay projects the Vikings at 8.8 wins, but the team's success largely hinges on Murray's performance alongside standout receiver Justin Jefferson.

As the draft approaches, these projections will continue to evolve, reflecting the dynamic nature of the NFL. Fans and analysts alike will be keenly watching how these teams navigate the offseason and prepare for a new campaign filled with promise and uncertainty.