The Hurricanes Are One Win Away from Shocking the CFP – Are They the Team No One Saw Coming?

As college football season heats up, many fans are turning to betting as a way to engage further with the sport. One such fan is East Texas handicapper Paul Stone, who recently took a trip to Bossier City, Louisiana, to make his wagers. Driving up State Route 79 to I-20, Stone tuned in to the Vegas Stats & Information Network (VSiN), where popular betting commentator Chris Fallica, known as “The Bear,” made a compelling case for the University of Miami to secure a spot in the national football playoff.

Fallica’s persuasive commentary inspired Stone to place a bet on Miami making the playoff field at odds of +400—meaning that for every $100 wagered, he would win $400 if successful. Just two days later, the selection committee officially included the Hurricanes in the playoff brackets, validating Stone's decision. “I’m usually an army of one, but Fallica was pretty convincing,” Stone admitted. “Not original work, but it cashes just the same. I take no credit for it. I would not have made that bet had I not listened to Chris.”

Stone’s trip was strictly business, taking him from Bossier City to Las Vegas on an Allegiant Air flight, where he prepared to dive into the weekend’s betting opportunities. His expertise is notable—he makes a healthy living wagering on college basketball and football, leveraging his own power figures to exploit favorable odds. Although he typically avoids futures betting, he recently purchased title tickets on teams like Indiana at odds of +800, and Texas Tech at 20-1.

“It really is a good way to use a smaller bankroll to enjoy the whole season,” he explained. Stone spent much of his time in his hotel room, analyzing data and researching teams. On the Sunday morning that the playoff spreads were released, he quickly placed bets on upcoming college hoops matchups, but his main focus remained on football.

Among his wagers was a bet on Miami to cover a spread of +4½ points against Texas A&M in College Station, Texas, scheduled for December 20. Stone also placed a bet on Ole Miss, heavily favored at -15 against Tulane. By the time he checked back later, the spread for Miami had already shifted to +4 and +3½, showing the dynamic nature of college football betting.

Stone expressed cautious respect for Texas A&M's head coach Mike Elko, who led the team to an impressive 11-1 record in his second season. However, he didn’t shy away from dissecting their performance. “But their seven conference victories were against teams that went a combined 12-44 in SEC play,” he noted, pointing out that A&M's wins were far from dominating. He pointed to their vulnerabilities, especially after a 27-17 loss to Texas, making the case for Miami as a formidable opponent. “Miami is a scary team,” he claimed, emphasizing that their quarterback, Carson Beck, needs to avoid turnovers to ensure success.

Turning his attention to Ole Miss, Stone reflected on their prior matchup against Tulane, where the Rebels triumphed 45-10, outgaining Tulane 548-282 in total yards. “Even in non-conference games against a Sun Belt team, Tulane gave up 31 points to South Alabama,” he explained. “They’re going up against one of the most potent offenses in the SEC.”

At the center of Ole Miss's success is quarterback Trinidad Chambliss. In just his second career start, he completed 17 of 27 passes for 307 yards, averaging an impressive 11.4 yards per throw. Stone remarked on Chambliss’s performance: “With more reps at this level, he’s a better quarterback now.” Stone added that despite losing offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. to LSU, Chambliss would still thrive, as Weis would continue calling plays for the game against Tulane.

By midweek, the betting line for Ole Miss had ballooned to 17½ points in their favor. Stone also considered betting against the total points line of 40½ in a matchup between Alabama and Oklahoma, demonstrating his keen interest in optimizing his betting strategy.

On Monday, Stone visited the South Point sportsbook, where he had made crucial bets earlier in the season, including two tickets for Big Ten teams. This venue has become a familiar stop for him, reminiscent of last year when he successfully bet on the exacta of Ohio State over Notre Dame at 25-1 and Notre Dame over Ohio State at 30-1. This year, he’s focused on new opportunities, employing similar strategies to predict outcomes for the playoffs. Utilizing resources like TeamRankings, which provides unbiased statistics, he crafted bets predicting matchups like Texas Tech vs. Miami, purchasing tickets for both outcomes at odds of 75-1.

As the playoff season approaches, Stone’s strategy and insights are a testament to the evolving world of sports betting. For many, it’s not just about the thrill of the game, but also about the numbers that can lead to substantial financial gains. With stakes high and the competition fierce, fans like Stone are proving that informed betting can be both a science and an art.