Smartphone Sales Are Set to Skyrocket 1.5% in 2025—Is Your Brand Ready to Lose Out?

As the global smartphone market gears up for 2025, the latest forecasts from the International Data Corporation (IDC) reveal a promising landscape, underpinned by surging demand for the iPhone, a surprising rebound in China, and rising average selling prices (ASPs). Worldwide smartphone shipments are projected to rise by 1.5% year-on-year, reaching approximately 1.25 billion units in 2025. This growth is an upward revision from IDC's earlier estimate of 1%, driven largely by Apple's impressive performance during the holiday quarter, improving demand in emerging markets, and early signs of stabilization in China's vast marketplace.

In what could mark a landmark year for the tech giant, **Apple** is expected to ship 247.4 million iPhones in 2025, representing a 6.1% annual growth—up from 3.9% in the previous cycle. "Apple is set to have a record year in 2025, thanks to the phenomenal success of its latest iPhone 17 series," said Nabila Popal, senior research director at IDC. This growth trajectory is particularly noteworthy as Apple has strengthened its foothold in China, the company's largest market, capturing over 20% market share during the months of October and November. Further bolstering this outlook, IDC has revised Apple’s Q4 China forecast from 9% growth to 17%, transitioning from an anticipated 1% decline for 2025 into 3% growth.

Financially, Apple’s iPhone revenue is now projected to exceed $261 billion, reflecting a robust 7.2% year-on-year increase. However, analysts caution that this momentum may not sustain into 2026. A decline of 0.9% in shipments is forecast for next year, reversing an earlier expectation of 1.2% growth. This expected slowdown is attributed to multiple factors, including a global shortage of memory components, rising bill-of-materials costs, and Apple’s strategic decision to delay the launch of its next base iPhone model from late 2026 to early 2027. This delay is anticipated to reduce iOS shipments by 4.2% in 2026.

Despite the projected decline in unit shipments, manufacturers are expected to raise prices due to the ongoing supply constraints. The global average selling price for smartphones is set to reach $465 in 2026, which would elevate the total market value to a record $578.9 billion, even amidst a reduction in shipped units. “As memory components become more limited and more expensive, manufacturers face increasing pressure to raise prices,” remarked Anthony Scarsella, research director at IDC.

The smartphone market in 2025 and beyond is indicative of larger trends shaping consumer technology today. The rising importance of ASPs underscores a shift in consumer behavior towards premium devices, with brands like Apple taking the lead. As emerging markets continue to recover and stabilize, particularly in China, the competitive landscape in the smartphone sector will evolve, potentially offering opportunities for growth even as challenges loom on the horizon. The projected figures signal not just a recovery, but possibly the beginning of a new phase in the smartphone industry.