Is California's Crowded Governor Race Hiding a Shocking GOP Opportunity? Find Out Why!

LOS ANGELES – How many Democrats are too many?

In the upcoming race for California governor, a crowded field of Democratic candidates is raising alarms among party insiders. The concern is that the division of votes could lead to a historic outcome: the possibility of two Republicans advancing from the June primary to the general election. Democratic consultant Paul Mitchell noted, “It’s the parlor game in Sacramento right now — could this happen?”

The uncertainty is largely a product of California's “top two” primary system, where all candidates appear on a single ballot, and only the top two finishers advance, regardless of party affiliation. This system has been in place for over a decade, but it has never been tested like this in a governor's race, leading to a “Why not me?” mentality among numerous Democrats seeking to enter the race.

Katie Porter, a former U.S. Representative and current gubernatorial candidate, warned her supporters in a recent fundraising drive, “There’s a very real chance there could be only Republicans on November’s ballot.” The implications of such a scenario would be seismic.

California is historically a Democratic stronghold, having not witnessed a Republican win a statewide election in two decades. If two Republicans manage to secure the top spots, it could reshape not just the governor's race but also congressional battlegrounds critical for determining control of the U.S. House.

The allure of the governor's seat in California is undeniable; the state's economy ranks as the fourth-largest in the world, supported by diverse sectors such as agriculture, technology, and entertainment. With a budget nearing $350 billion—equivalent to the market value of Netflix—the position offers unparalleled influence.

With Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom legally barred from seeking a third term, this race represents the most open gubernatorial election in a generation. Dozens of individuals have filed to run, including a college student and a billionaire, with at least nine Democratic contenders possessing the name recognition and fundraising capabilities to be serious competitors.

Among the prominent candidates are Porter, Representative Eric Swalwell, and former California Attorney General Xavier Becerra. Other candidates include former state controller Betty Yee, California schools superintendent Tony Thurmond, billionaire Tom Steyer, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and former Assembly majority leader Ian Calderon.

As candidates vie for recognition, they are increasingly emphasizing unique aspects of their platforms to distinguish themselves. Swalwell, for example, highlights his role as a House manager during former President Donald Trump’s 2021 impeachment trial, while Mahan has been vocal in criticizing Newsom on issues of crime and homelessness. Steyer, however, has been critical of Mahan, arguing he is too closely aligned with tech interests.

Some Democrats hope that the crowded field will naturally narrow as candidates drop out. “It would be best for the lower-tiered people to drop out,” said Democratic strategist Drexel Heard II. “You are looking at people who are never going to break through.”

Mitchell used polling data to conduct simulations assessing the chances of two Republicans advancing and found that while it remains a long shot, it is possible. Notably, the leading GOP candidates include Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and conservative commentator Steve Hilton, both staunch supporters of Trump.

In California, Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly 2-to-1, and the party has held every statewide office since 2010. However, in the primary, Democrats are expected to divide about 60% of the vote, while Republicans capture around 40%. This division could be detrimental to the Democrats, particularly if they field numerous credible candidates.

Mitchell emphasized the significance of this scenario, stating, “It’s a small probability but one that would be a massive, massive deal.” The challenge for Democrats is that there is no governing body to tell lower-tier candidates they cannot run.

Republicans echo similar concerns regarding vote splitting, with Hilton urging Bianco to withdraw in hopes of consolidating support behind one strong GOP candidate. “We cannot risk splitting the Republican vote and letting the Democrats in,” he insisted during a debate.

As the race evolves, it reflects broader trends within the Democratic Party, particularly as they prepare for the 2028 presidential contest, where a similarly crowded field is forming. With Republicans currently in control of Congress and the White House, many Democrats are feeling both energized and frustrated, as they seek to strengthen their coalition and broaden their appeal to voters.