Flu Season Kicks Off Weak, But This Shocking New Strain Could Spell Disaster—Are You Protected?

As the U.S. enters the 2023 flu season, health officials are monitoring developments closely, though it's starting off slower than last year. While it's still uncertain if this season will mirror the severity of the previous one, new data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) raises concerns, particularly regarding the emergence of a new strain of the flu virus.

The CDC's recent findings show that a new version of the type A H3N2 flu virus is predominant in the early infections reported this year. A preliminary analysis suggests that the current vaccines may offer some level of protection against this variant, although it differs from the strains the flu shots were designed to combat. This is concerning, especially since last winter saw one of the deadliest flu seasons in recent memory, resulting in over 18,000 flu-related deaths and record hospitalizations.

Experts warn that low vaccination rates could exacerbate the situation. Asefeh Faraz Covelli, a nurse educator at the George Washington University School of Nursing, expressed her apprehensions, stating, “I think we’re going to see a really severe season.” Last winter, the flu hospitalization rate reached its highest level since the H1N1 pandemic, with a staggering spike of over 1,800 deaths in one week—the highest in a decade. Such statistics underscore the potential risks for vulnerable populations, including older adults and children. In fact, flu-related child fatalities were alarmingly high last season.

So far this flu season, the CDC reports low activity levels, with only Louisiana experiencing moderate flu activity, primarily among children. The new H3N2 variant is particularly concerning as it has historically led to increased hospitalizations and fatalities among older individuals. As of now, more than half of the flu cases reported are attributed to a newly identified subclade K variant.

As the season progresses, health professionals anticipate a surge in flu cases, especially with the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday prompting increased travel and gatherings. Covelli emphasized that now is an optimal time for individuals to receive their flu vaccinations: “This is the ideal time to get vaccinated.”

Adding complexity to the current situation is the recent government shutdown, which disrupted data collection efforts by the CDC, creating a lag in the tracking of respiratory infections and vaccination rates. This interruption came at a critical time, just as the flu season began to ramp up.

Moreover, the current administration under U.S. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has faced criticism for its approach to vaccination campaigns. Kennedy, known for his anti-vaccine stance, has contributed to public uncertainty regarding the safety of vaccines, including those for the flu. This has likely impacted overall vaccination efforts, as evidenced by a decline in COVID-19 vaccination rates, which are currently at about 6% for children and 14% for adults—both figures down by approximately 3 percentage points from last year.

When it comes to flu vaccinations, trends appear more mixed. Data from IQVIA indicates that over two million fewer flu shots were administered at U.S. pharmacies compared to last year by the end of October. However, CDC figures suggest that vaccination rates for children have remained steady at about 34%, while adult vaccination rates have seen a slight increase to around 37%.

As we move deeper into the flu season, the hospitalization rates for flu are similar to last year's figures at this point, and hospitalizations for other respiratory viruses, including COVID-19 and RSV, are currently lower. This presents an opportunity for public health officials to bolster vaccination efforts and encourage preventive measures among the population to avoid a repeat of last year's devastating flu season.