Could the 2026 California Governor Race Change Everything? Shocking Candidates You Won’t Believe!

The special election on redistricting in California has been officially certified, with significant decisions made by former Vice President Kamala Harris and U.S. Senator Alex Padilla. As we inch closer to the primary for California’s next governor—set for just six months from now—the question arises: is the gubernatorial race finally heating up?

So far, the campaign has been notably lackluster, lacking the excitement that typically accompanies such a pivotal election. Despite a crowded field of candidates, political experts describe the race to replace the outgoing Governor Gavin Newsom as relatively dull. This stagnation can partly be attributed to the Proposition 50 special election that captured the political spotlight in late 2025, but the absence of standout figures in the gubernatorial lineup has also played a role.

“It’s an open race,” said Matt Lesenyie, a political science instructor at Cal State Long Beach. “No big splashes so far.”

As 2025 comes to a close, the crowded field of Democratic contenders is already beginning to shrink. Candidates like former U.S. Health Secretary Xavier Becerra, State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, and former State Controller Betty Yee remain in the running, all bringing experience from California’s executive branch. Also in the mix is former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, who previously acted as an advisor to Newsom, alongside billionaire environmentalist Tom Steyer, whose financial backing may help elevate his visibility among voters.

On the Republican side, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and former Fox News host Steve Hilton have gained traction in recent polls, although it’s noteworthy that the undecided voter category remains the most popular choice among those surveyed. Potential entrants like Attorney General Rob Bonta and billionaire businessman Rick Caruso could still shake up the race, though their impact may not be as significant as that of Harris or Padilla.

Although the race for California’s governor is far from lonely, it is characterized by a certain dullness, a situation that political experts find surprising.

“What’s notable about this race is how extraordinarily unsettled it is,” said Dan Schnur, who teaches political messaging at USC and UC Berkeley. “There hasn’t been a campaign for California governor in modern political history that has been so open-ended at this stage.”

Even Sen. Tony Strickland, R-Huntington Beach, noted the unusual absence of a clear frontrunner in this election cycle. “This is the first time I can recall that there’s not a clear-cut frontrunner,” he said, hinting at the potential for unpredictability as the election year approaches.

Looking ahead to 2026, Lesenyie anticipates that the candidate pool will diminish further, driven by the high costs of campaigning and varying poll results. He believes that the rising cost of living will be a central issue in the upcoming campaign. “In the 2022 gubernatorial election, this manifested as a ‘homelessness crisis,’ which is true, but retrospectively is also a proxy for cost of living,” he explained, suggesting that voters will likely be focused on issues related to retail goods, rent, and affordable housing.

Strickland echoes this sentiment, arguing that candidates who emphasize affordability and public safety could distinguish themselves. This perspective includes a critical look at California’s expenditure on certain projects, such as the controversial high-speed rail project, which was initially promoted as a way to connect major California cities.

Given the absence of a strong Democratic frontrunner, Strickland sees a window for a Republican candidate to advance through the June primary. This possibility is not unprecedented in California, where the latest statistics reveal that 44.93% of voters are registered Democrats, while only 25.22% identify as Republicans, and 22.6% have no party preference. In the recent race for an open U.S. Senate seat, Republican Steve Garvey managed to advance to the general election alongside Democrat Adam Schiff, who ultimately won by a significant margin.

“I’ve always said the Democrats have to make some mistakes and a Republican has to run a perfect campaign,” Strickland, who has endorsed Hilton for governor, remarked. “But I don’t think it’s as insurmountable as other people say.”

However, former gubernatorial candidate Stephen Cloobeck, who suspended his campaign in November, argues that the recent redistricting reflects a political climate favorable to Democrats. “If you do the math, it’s undeniable,” he stated, supporting Eric Swalwell in the race. “Trump can’t spend enough money in California to elect a Republican governor. It can’t happen.”

The political landscape remains tumultuous, with Schnur characterizing the current field of hopefuls as “a political moshpit.” He believes that while garnering voter attention will become somewhat easier as the election year progresses, the ongoing multi-candidate struggle could complicate the dynamics leading up to the primary.

In essence, the race for California governor remains unsettled, teetering between a crowded field and a distinct lack of compelling narratives as candidates vie for the attention of voters in a state that continues to evolve politically.