College Football Playoff's Shocking Downfall: Are Major Schools Planning a REVOLT?

As the college football landscape shifts, the ongoing debate about the College Football Playoff (CFP) continues to stir emotions, particularly among fans of teams like Notre Dame who often find themselves on the outside looking in. This year, the controversy around selection bias and the role of conference championships has prompted a deeper look into the structure of college football and its growing relevance in today's game.

One popular narrative suggests that defeating a team twice in a single season is a daunting task, yet it's often overlooked that overcoming a team three times—something that can happen in NFL playoffs—is significantly more challenging. In the NFL, teams like the Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings have faced this reality, but in college football, the stakes are defined differently. As fans, we often gloss over these intricate dynamics.

Interestingly, the idea of conference championship games is a relatively new concept in major college football, emerging only in the last 25-30 years. These games were initially introduced when top teams began meeting in bowl games to crown a national champion. In contrast, "mid-major" conferences like the Mid-American Conference (MAC) had championship games even earlier, primarily because their top teams were often the only representatives in bowl games. Today, even teams with mediocre records—like 6-6—can find their way into bowl games, diluting the significance of conference titles.

With the CFP expanding to 12 teams, the necessity of conference championship games in major conferences appears increasingly questionable. They may soon be viewed as relics of a bygone era, given the new playoff structure. The exclusion of teams from the Group of Five conferences—such as James Madison and Tulane—raises further questions. While it may seem reasonable this season, there will undoubtedly be years when a mid-major team with an undefeated record will prove worthy of contention against a three-loss Power Four team. This raises the question: Should the CFP prioritize performance over prestige?

Moreover, the current conference championship framework lacks a penalty for losing teams, even while providing rewards for victorious ones. Implementing a system that appropriately penalizes losing teams could refine the competitive landscape, giving weight to each game played during the season.

Another element to consider is recency bias in evaluating team performance. This often plays a pivotal role in playoff selection discussions, despite being something sports analysts typically advise against. In the NFL, for instance, not all 11-6 records are created equal. A team that started strong but faltered towards the end may not be as formidable as a team that rallied after a slow start. This difference in momentum is crucial and, unlike the NFL, college football does not offer the same equitable scheduling opportunities. Consequently, a team like James Madison with a 12-1 record lacks the heft of a power conference schedule compared to Ohio State or Georgia, both with 12-1 records as well.

While metrics such as strength of schedule and margins of victory are vital, weighing recent performance more heavily could lead to a more accurate reflection of a team's current capabilities. For instance, Alabama, which has faced a recent downturn, might be edged out in favor of teams like Miami and Notre Dame, regardless of personal biases against them.

Shifting our focus to the NFL, this week features compelling matchups as teams vie for playoff positioning:

• Atlanta at Tampa Bay - The Buccaneers are locked in a tight race for the NFC South and face a division rival. Prediction: Buccaneers win 31-20.
• Arizona at Houston - The Texans are fighting hard in the AFC South. Prediction: Texans win 19-6.
• Baltimore at Cincinnati - The Bengals are on the brink of playoff elimination, which may lead to a letdown. Prediction: Ravens win 27-23.
• Buffalo at New England - The Bills' rushing defense presents a vulnerability, especially against a Patriots team coming off a bye. Prediction: Patriots win 34-30.
• Cleveland at Chicago - The Bears could take advantage of the Browns' struggles. Prediction: Bears win 23-16.
• Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City - With division pride at stake, expect the Chiefs to rally at home. Prediction: Chiefs win 26-24.
• Las Vegas at Philadelphia - The Eagles look to capitalize on a struggling Raiders team. Prediction: Eagles win 27-19.
• New York Jets at Jacksonville - Opting for the higher-quality team, prediction: Jaguars win 30-21.
• Washington at New York Giants - A clash between two struggling teams vying for better draft positions. Prediction: Giants win 23-19.
• Carolina at New Orleans - Following a win, the Saints may have trouble maintaining momentum. Prediction: Panthers win 24-20.
• Detroit at Los Angeles Rams - The Rams will be motivated to break their losing streak against the Lions. Prediction: Rams win 33-28.
• Green Bay at Denver - The thin air could be a factor for the Packers. Prediction: Broncos win 20-14.
• Indianapolis at Seattle - The Colts struggle against a fierce Seahawks defense. Prediction: Seahawks win 26-10.
• Tennessee at San Francisco - The 49ers come off a bye looking to maintain their momentum. Prediction: 49ers win 29-19.
• Minnesota at Dallas - Dallas tends to be strong at home. Prediction: Cowboys win 30-20.
• Miami at Pittsburgh - The Steelers are predicted to edge out the Dolphins. Prediction: Steelers win 27-23.

Last week, predictions were split at 7-7, maintaining a season total of 120-86, which translates to 58 percent. For fans and analysts alike, the intersection of college and professional football continues to evoke passionate discussions about fairness, competition, and the unpredictability of the game.