Bitcoin's Surprising Surge: Is This a Dead Cat Bounce or Your Last Chance to Profit?

On Thursday, Bitcoin’s price climbed above $73,000, but according to CryptoQuant, this surge is likely a temporary “relief rally” rather than the beginning of a new bullish trend. Julio Moreno, the head of research at CryptoQuant, emphasized in a recent report that the core indicators of market direction have not improved sufficiently to signal a cycle change. He stated, “Bitcoin is still inside a bear market, despite the recent price rally,” and added that both fundamental and technical indicators continue to point to a bearish environment.

Moreno noted that the contraction in Bitcoin's spot demand has improved. At the start of 2026, this contraction was around -136,000 BTC, but it has since narrowed to about -25,000 BTC. This shift suggests that selling pressure has eased since early February, which may contribute to the current upward movement in price.

In addition to easing selling pressure, CryptoQuant also highlighted a positive shift in buying signals from U.S. investors. The Coinbase Bitcoin premium, which measures trading activity among U.S.-based traders, has shifted from “deeply negative” earlier in February to its most positive level since October. This could indicate that American investors are becoming more optimistic about Bitcoin's potential.

Despite this rebound, the CryptoQuant Bitcoin Bull Score Index remains strikingly low at just 10 out of 100. Moreno pointed out that significant resistance levels could emerge around $79,000 and $90,000, which are linked to traders' on-chain realized price bands. He explained, “Indeed, this band acted as resistance in mid-January, after Bitcoin rallied from $80,000 to $98,000.” As of now, Bitcoin is trading around $71,160, reflecting a nearly 3% decrease over the last 24 hours.

This recent price movement follows a period where long-term holders have slowed their selling activities. The 30-day average selling pace dropped significantly, from about 904,000 BTC on November 26 to approximately 276,000 BTC, which is the lowest level since June 2025. Furthermore, traders' unrealized losses have reached levels not seen since July 2022, suggesting that many are holding onto their investments in hopes of better market conditions. Historically, such circumstances have led to reduced marginal selling, which may play a role in stabilizing prices.

While optimism may be creeping back into the market, the consensus among analysts remains cautious. The current rally, characterized as a relief rally within an ongoing bear market, highlights the volatility and uncertainty that still permeate the cryptocurrency space. Investors should remain vigilant as they navigate these turbulent waters, keeping an eye on key resistance levels and market indicators that could signal further shifts in sentiment.