Bitcoin's Shocking Signal Just Spiked – Are You Prepared for the Next Wild Ride?

In a surprising twist for traders and crypto enthusiasts alike, Bitcoin has recently flashed a promising technical indicator known as a “golden cross,” which could signal a potential recovery for the cryptocurrency. This pattern occurs when a shorter-term moving average crosses above a longer-term one, typically the 50-day average surpassing the 200-day average. This configuration suggests that recent price momentum is outpacing the broader trend, indicating that the market may be gaining momentum. However, the rest of the cryptocurrency market does not seem to share this optimism.

Over 95% of the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization have experienced losses within the past 24 hours, as the total crypto market cap has dipped to approximately $3.23 trillion. Even Bitcoin itself is down roughly 1.3% today, despite the bullish “golden cross” formation on its charts.

In contrast, traditional markets offered some stability, with the S&P 500 closing higher after two consecutive losing sessions, buoyed by strong earnings reports from financial giants like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. The semiconductor sector also saw gains, thanks to Taiwan Semiconductor's impressive results. Notably, the Russell 2000 achieved a fresh all-time high, marking its longest winning streak against the S&P 500 since 1990.

The golden cross is a notable indicator, especially for Bitcoin, which has a strong track record with this pattern. For instance, the golden cross that emerged in September 2023 led to a remarkable 148% rally, while the one in September 2024 resulted in a 64% gain. The formation observed from April to August in 2025 saw a 35% increase. While past performance does not guarantee future results, it often serves as a significant reference point.

Bitcoin's current trading price is hovering around $95,000, down 1.3% today after reaching an intraday high near $97,200, but it has gained 5.4% over the last week. The Average Directional Index (ADX), which measures trend strength on a scale from 0 to 100, currently stands at 33.5, indicating real momentum in Bitcoin's movements. Readings above 25 suggest that price action is genuine rather than mere market noise.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which assesses buying versus selling pressure, is currently reading 63. Values above 70 typically indicate overbought conditions, while those below 30 suggest oversold territory. Bitcoin's RSI indicates it remains in bullish territory, with room for growth before traders might consider taking profits.

The Squeeze Momentum Indicator indicates that Bitcoin is already moving upward after a prolonged compression phase. This metric suggests a buildup of volatility akin to a coiled spring, which, once released, could lead to significant directional movements. This positive momentum reading leans toward bullish sentiment.

Moreover, the exponential moving average (EMA) configuration confirms the bullish trend, with the 50-period EMA trading above the 200-period EMA and Bitcoin's price positioned above both. This “bullish alignment” generally signals that short-term trading momentum is favoring buyers. However, traders remain cautious, recalling previous instances where similar crossings did not lead to a sustained long-term trend, such as the cross from October 1 to October 13 last year.

The $98,000 level has proven to be a significant resistance point, coinciding with a Fibonacci retracement level drawn from Bitcoin's all-time high near $126,000 to a recent low of $80,000. The psychological barrier of $100,000 also looms just above, creating a “double whammy of resistance” with both technical and psychological factors converging at that price point.

Market sentiment is also shifting. According to predictions on Myriad, a prediction market developed by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, the odds of Bitcoin hitting $100,000 before dropping to $69,000 have risen to 86.7%, a marked increase from 63% at the beginning of January. However, a separate market suggests that there is a 73.4% likelihood that Bitcoin will not achieve a new all-time high before July, indicating that while $100,000 is viewed as attainable, surpassing $126,000 remains a more contentious topic.

This scenario creates an intriguing setup for traders. While Bitcoin's technical indicators support a continued upward trajectory, the broader consensus appears to suggest that this rally may face significant resistance between its current levels and the previous highs. For those looking to navigate this landscape, a strategy of short-term bullishness combined with long-term caution may be prudent, particularly as Bitcoin approaches the critical $100,000 threshold.

Key Levels to Watch:

• Resistance:
  • $98,000 (Fibonacci/immediate)
  • $100,000 (psychological)
  • $108,757 (next Fibonacci level)
• Support:
  • $91,353 (strong support)
  • $89,000 (high volume low)
  • $80,601 (breakdown level)

The views and opinions expressed in this article are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.