Could Maine’s Independent Candidate Steal the Governor’s Seat? Shocking Poll Results Inside!

RUMFORD — On a recent spring-like morning, Rick Bennett gathered with supporters in the shiny new kitchen of the type of apartment he hopes to build more of if elected governor of Maine. Surrounded by a small group holding campaign signs, Bennett outlined his top ideas to tackle the state's pressing housing crisis. His proposals include offering homeowners state funds to help with their mortgage, with the government able to recoup some of the costs as home values increase, and incentivizing the construction of factory-built and modular housing.

“If we’re going to find solutions, that means some things that have become dirty words in politics: collaboration, compromise, working across the aisle,” Bennett said in an interview after the event. “People get that. So I’ve been really feeling like I’m approaching this in the right way at the right time.”

Bennett, a longtime lawmaker and businessman, is among six independents running for governor. Unlike some of his competitors, who are relatively unknown, he boasts a robust resume, having raised more funds than several party-affiliated candidates.

Maine has a long tradition of embracing independent candidates. Approximately one-third of the state’s voters identify as independents, and among the last seven governors, two have been independents, including current U.S. Senator Angus King, who served two terms as governor and has been elected to the Senate three times.

However, the current political climate is notably polarized, especially in the wake of Donald Trump’s presidency. Bennett, who was a Republican until last year, must rely on voters' willingness to engage with someone outside their party affiliation if he hopes to win.

Riley Worth, a 23-year-old University of Southern Maine student who attended Bennett’s event, hasn’t yet decided whom he will vote for in the governor’s race. However, as an independent, he resonates with the idea of an independent candidate. “It’d be great to have someone at the state level who’s more focused on getting the job done rather than toeing the party line,” he said. “There are so many great ideas Republicans have and so many great ideas Democrats have. … I like that an independent can pick and choose from each.”

What Kind of Candidate Is Bennett?

Last year, at the same time he announced his campaign for governor, Bennett had a public split with the GOP. Despite voting for Trump in 2016, he later expressed that he does not believe Trump is suitable for the presidency. Bennett’s campaign emphasizes his identity as a “businessperson who supports strong pro-growth economic policies.”

“I also support something which I think Mainers share, which is they don’t want politicians making decisions about the way they live and who they are,” he added.

Optimistic about his chances, Bennett noted that people have been more receptive to his candidacy as an independent than he had anticipated. Maine has only elected two independent governors in its 206-year history: James Longley, who served from 1975 to 1979, and King, who held office from 1995 to 2003.

Before leaving the Republican Party, Bennett was the lone member to vote with Democrats against bills aimed at preventing transgender athletes from participating in girls' sports. He also supported a controversial Democratic initiative to limit law enforcement’s collaboration with immigration authorities.

His appeal transcends party lines, garnering endorsements from officials in both parties. Representative Lydia Crafts, a Democrat from Newcastle, is among several Democratic officials who have supported Bennett. “I’m impressed with his ability to put issues before the partisanship that has divided much of our country,” she stated. “I’ve heard that from my own constituents too, that they care about being open and listening to positions that aren’t dictated by some sort of mandate by party affiliation.”

Is the Support There?

Dan Shea, a professor of government at Colby College, expressed skepticism about Bennett’s ability to gain traction in today’s highly partisan environment, noting that even independent voters tend to lean towards one side or the other. “Swing voters — truly independent voters — are a vanishing breed,” he said, making it difficult for independent candidates to succeed.

Shea added that if a hardline candidate in the mold of Trump were to emerge in the governor's race, few Republican voters would likely be deterred from supporting them, making it challenging for Bennett to attract conservatives. Conversely, Democrats are expected to unify behind their nominee, wary of a repeat of the 2010 election, where former Republican Governor Paul LePage won with only 38% of the vote, partly due to a strong independent candidate, Eliot Cutler, finishing second.

Yet, the current political divide might also sway voters towards someone like Bennett, who presents himself as a consensus-builder and is already a recognized figure in Maine politics. “I’m certainly not going to predict that he’s going to win yet,” said Jim Melcher, a political science professor at the University of Maine at Farmington. “But I think there’s every reason to think that he’ll be a very strong candidate.”

An additional factor to consider is a bill currently under examination that could expand the use of ranked-choice voting to include the governor’s race—currently, it applies only to federal races and state-level primaries. This new voting system allows voters to select third-party candidates without the fear of wasting their vote, which could significantly bolster Bennett's chances if implemented before the election.

“The pool of voters in the middle has shrunk, but that could be Bennett’s opening,” Shea concluded. “It would be narrow, but possible.”