Matt Mahan’s Shocking Rise Could Change Everything—Is He Pasadena’s Future Governor?

The race for the California governorship is heating up, as candidates take to the debate stage to outline their visions for the state. During the recent debate in San Francisco, many candidates presented mixed messages, but one stood out—the relatively unknown San José Mayor, Matt Mahan.

Notably absent from the stage was Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a former member of the Oath Keepers, whose tenure has been marred by controversies, including a troubling record of deaths in his jails. With Bianco out of the picture, the remaining Republican candidate, Steve Hilton, took on the responsibility of representing the party, despite his British background raising eyebrows among voters. For those unfamiliar, Hilton’s English accent, along with his fashionable appearance, added an intriguing layer to the debate. However, the specter of California's past governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, loomed large, reminding voters of the state's history with foreign-born politicians.

As I watched the two-hour debate—yes, all of it, so you don’t have to—certain trends emerged that may shape the upcoming election. While serious policy discussions unfolded, the candidates’ charisma and presentation were equally significant. In politics, style can often matter just as much as substance, especially in a state as populous and diverse as California.

If the old political adage holds true—that the candidate most attacked is likely the frontrunner—then Mahan might just be the one to watch. He is a moderate Democrat with impressive credentials, having successfully challenged public employee unions in San José. His ideas are thoughtful and somewhat unconventional, which could resonate with voters seeking an alternative to more traditional Democratic candidates.

During the debate, Hilton aimed his criticisms at Mahan, indicating the Republicans’ strategy to appeal to California’s predominantly Democratic electorate. He framed himself as a moderate, albeit one who has aligned with the right-wing sentiments of the party, suggesting that his choice for lieutenant governor, Gloria Romero, reflects a more MAGA-oriented approach. Hilton’s comment on Bianco’s absence—"In 2020, during the Black Lives Matter riots, he took a knee when told to by BLM"—illustrates his attempt to distance himself from the controversies surrounding Bianco, but it also highlights the challenges facing California Republicans.

Polling suggests that Republican candidates like Hilton and Bianco may struggle to gain traction in a state where Democratic voters dominate. This means that if you want to understand the dynamics of this election, you should pay closer attention to the Democratic contenders. The stage was filled with several prominent names, but many seemed to lack the charisma needed to capture the public’s imagination.

Among the Democratic candidates was Xavier Becerra, who previously filed 122 lawsuits against the Trump administration as California’s attorney general. While he is undoubtedly intelligent, his demeanor often comes across as bland. Then there’s billionaire Tom Steyer, who, despite his wealth and experience, also seems to struggle in capturing attention. Tony Thurmond, the state’s schools chief, faces skepticism given California’s challenging public education landscape, while Antonio Villaraigosa, a former mayor of Los Angeles, appears to lack a fresh vision for the future. Even Betty Yee, who previously chaired the state Franchise Tax Board, seems entrenched in past leadership rather than presenting new ideas.

As for the candidates not present at the debate, their viability remains questionable. Katie Porter has faced backlash for her demeanor captured in viral videos, while Eric Swalwell, known for his role during the Trump impeachment, struggles with visibility outside the Bay Area.

In contrast, Mahan has managed to maintain a calm demeanor amidst the onslaught of attacks, a trait that could serve him well as the race progresses. When Hilton attempted to criticize Mahan’s view on homelessness—calling Gavin Newsom's handling of the issue only "OK"—Mahan responded effectively. He highlighted San José’s success in reducing unsheltered homelessness, making a strong case for his policies without becoming defensive: “Steve, you came to San José just a week ago to see what’s working. What’s wrong with our politics is to denigrate ideas because of who has them.”

As the campaign unfolds, it remains to be seen whether Mahan can sustain this momentum. A single debate performance does not guarantee electoral success, but he has certainly emerged as a candidate to watch in California’s complex political landscape. With the election still several months away, the dynamics can shift rapidly—yet based on this initial debate, Mahan may be positioning himself as a formidable contender for the governorship.