Bitcoin's Shocking 36% Sale Odds: What This BTC Price Drop Means for Your Wallet!

As of February 5, 2026, sentiment surrounding Bitcoin and its largest treasury firm, Strategy, is shifting significantly. A recent report from Decrypt reveals that users on the prediction market Myriad are increasingly betting on the likelihood of the firm selling some of its Bitcoin holdings. The probability of a sale before the end of the year has surged to 36%, up from just 22% earlier in the week.

This bearish sentiment coincides with a notable decline in Bitcoin's value, which has dropped below critical support levels to trade at $76,039. This figure is alarmingly close to the average purchase price of Strategy's Bitcoin holdings. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has decreased by 2.9%, while its value has plummeted 15.4% over the past week and 18.1% in the last month, according to CoinGecko data. These fluctuations are significant, especially considering that Bitcoin has now sunk approximately 40% from its October peak of $126,080. Users on Myriad assign a greater than 72% chance that Bitcoin will fall to $69,000 rather than rebound to $100,000.

The potential for Strategy to continue purchasing Bitcoin—or to avoid selling—depends largely on its multiple to net asset value (mNAV). This metric compares the firm's enterprise value to the value of its Bitcoin assets. An mNAV greater than 1 suggests that the stock trades at a premium compared to its Bitcoin holdings, allowing the firm to issue shares via at-the-market offerings to finance further purchases. Presently, this ratio hovers around 1.08. Should it dip below 1, the company may pause or slow down its buying activities. On Myriad, users are predicting a near-90% chance that Strategy's mNAV will drop to 0.85 rather than rise to 1.5, a figure that has remained stable over the past month.

Analysts Remain Cautiously Optimistic

Despite the overall bearish sentiment, analysts are skeptical about the likelihood of Strategy liquidating its Bitcoin holdings. Nic Puckrin, a digital asset analyst and co-founder of Coin Bureau, stated, "I don't think the drop in the Bitcoin prices changes anything for Strategy." He emphasized that the firm's co-founder and chair, Michael Saylor, has always been prepared for downturns, a sentiment that resonates with experienced Bitcoin investors. Puckrin added that Saylor is not facing any forced liquidations, and the first tranche of convertible bonds isn't due until early next year.

Aurelie Barthere, Principal Research Analyst at Nansen, noted that the firm is unlikely to increase its Bitcoin holdings in the near term, given the current spot price-to-average purchase price ratio of 1, which could be dilutive. However, Strategy has continued to buy Bitcoin, recently announcing an additional purchase of 855 BTC on February 2. Saylor has maintained a bullish outlook, tweeting, "1. Buy Bitcoin 2. Don't Sell the Bitcoin" earlier this week.

Ultimately, whether Strategy decides to sell BTC will largely depend on its cash reserves, particularly in relation to preferred stock dividends that must be met. As the stakes rise in the volatile world of cryptocurrencies, investors and analysts alike will be watching closely to see how Strategy maneuvers through this challenging landscape.