Smartphone Shipments Set to Skyrocket by 2% in 2025—Is Your Brand Prepared for This Shock?

The global smartphone market is poised for a modest resurgence, with shipments projected to increase by 2% in 2025, reaching a total of 1.25 billion units—the highest level since 2021. This prediction comes from the latest research by Omdia, a leading market analysis firm.

While shipments are expected to rise across most regions, Greater China presents a contrasting trend. The mainland Chinese market is anticipated to see a slight decline, attributed to the underwhelming impact of national subsidy policies in 2025. Despite these challenges, the market is buoyed by strong demand for upgrades and replacements, contributing to overall growth in a business environment rife with uncertainties. Many manufacturers are reporting record-breaking sales.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, global shipments experienced a year-on-year increase of 4%, driven by seasonal factors and robust vendor performance. However, the landscape is shifting as rising costs for key components, particularly memory chips, began to dampen shipment expectations for 2026.

Among the major players, Apple stands out, achieving a new annual shipment record with iPhone sales climbing by 7% to reach 240.6 million units. This marks the third consecutive year that Apple has maintained its status as the world's largest smartphone manufacturer. Notably, the fourth quarter saw the highest single-quarter iPhone shipments in history, largely propelled by the strong demand for the iPhone 17 series, particularly in the Chinese mainland market, which reported a remarkable 26% growth.

Samsung also rebounded in 2025 after three years of shipment declines, recording a 7% growth in shipments. The company benefitted from resilient demand for its flagship models and a resurgence in mass-market sales. Samsung's fourth quarter was particularly strong, showcasing a 16% year-on-year increase in shipments, driven by sustained performance of the Galaxy S and Z series, as well as regaining market share in entry-level segments.

Meanwhile, Xiaomi retained its position among the top three manufacturers despite facing challenges, with a 2% drop in fourth-quarter shipments due to weak demand for entry-level models and significant contractions in key markets. The company’s strategy focuses on expanding its product portfolio, from low-cost POCO devices to high-end models and AIoT products. Vivo made headlines by securing the fourth spot for the first time, achieving annual shipments of 105.3 million units—up 4% year-on-year—thanks to its continued success in the Indian market and stable domestic performance.

OPPO, ranking fifth, faced a challenging first half of 2025 but saw a return to growth in the fourth quarter with the launch of the A6x series, culminating in total annual shipments of 100.7 million units, though down 3% year-on-year. The integration of realme into OPPO in 2026 is expected to bolster its market position.

Beyond the top five, several vendors like Honor and Lenovo reported positive growth amidst challenging conditions, with year-on-year increases of 11% and 6%, respectively. Huawei marked a significant recovery, reclaiming the top spot in the Chinese mainland market for the first time in five years, while Nothing emerged as the fastest-growing vendor, seeing an 86% surge in shipments, surpassing 3 million units.

Runar Bjorhovde, a senior analyst at Omdia, pointed out that while 2025 was generally a positive year for most vendors, concerns for 2026 are already surfacing. His report, titled "DRAM Consumes Smartphones: Key Success Factors for 2026," highlights escalating supply-side pressures on DRAM, NAND, and other semiconductor components, which are causing significant concern among manufacturers. These constraints may lead to squeezed profit margins and price adjustments, potentially dampening consumer demand.

Le Xuan Chiew, a research manager at Omdia, emphasized that as market contraction in 2026 becomes increasingly inevitable, vendors will need to shift focus toward profitability while exploring alternative revenue streams. This period of market volatility may offer agile vendors, suppliers, and partners opportunities to adapt to challenges, targeting upgrade-driven users and new sales channels to secure market share essential for long-term resilience.

The smartphone market's trajectory in 2026 will hinge on how effectively vendors navigate these supply-side pressures while optimizing their partnerships and gaining deeper insights into consumer purchasing decisions. With rising costs and market challenges ahead, understanding consumer behavior will be crucial for companies aiming to maintain their competitive edge in the evolving landscape.