Are Scientists Ignoring a Shocking 50% Drop in Stocking Rates? Discover the Hidden Crisis!

Stand in front of a world map, eliminate the oceans, and throw a dart. You'd have about a one-in-four chance of hitting land used for grazing livestock. However, according to a recent study from Arizona State University, the distribution of these grazing animals has shifted notably over the last 25 years, raising significant environmental and climate concerns.

Published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the study analyzed data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations to track livestock trends from 1999 to 2023. The findings reveal a troubling disparity: while livestock populations are increasing in regions such as middle Africa, parts of Asia, and Central and South America, they are declining in North America, Europe, and Australia.

This decline in livestock has been less examined than the environmental ramifications of overgrazing. From 1999 to 2023, for every study published on the negative impacts of overgrazing, there were approximately ten papers focused on this issue compared to just one on the ecological effects of decreasing livestock. Osvaldo Sala, the director of Arizona State University’s Global Drylands Center and a co-author of the study, noted, “The mismatch between the patterns of stocking rates and the literature really surprised me.” He emphasized that prevailing scientific discourse heavily emphasizes overgrazing, which can skew policy responses and funding towards one side of the issue.

The increase in livestock populations globally has been linked to factors such as rising meat consumption, shifts in poultry and pork production, and correlations with wealth and population growth. Conversely, the decline in livestock in the West—specifically the American West—introduces complex environmental outcomes that are difficult to predict. While some ecosystems can recover without cattle, leading to restored biodiversity, this is not a guaranteed outcome. The research indicates that reduced grazing can also disrupt local water cycles, elevate wildfire risks, and diminish biodiversity if not managed properly.

The implications of these environmental changes are critical. For instance, while increased plant growth can enhance carbon capture, it can also elevate the risk of severe wildfires, releasing stored carbon back into the atmosphere. Sala stressed the urgency of further research to thoroughly understand how declining livestock numbers relate to these climate change dynamics. “It’s not only an opportunity but a need if we want to have a full picture of climate change,” he stated. The majority of U.S. livestock is found in the Western rangelands, and while there are currently fewer cattle compared to 1999, overgrazing remains a pressing issue.

Investigative reporting by High Country News highlights how certain wealthy landowners continue to allow their cattle to overgraze despite warnings from federal agencies. Retta Bruegger, a rangeland ecologist at Colorado State University who was not involved in the study, remarked, “They’ve highlighted a really important blind spot that exists in general research about livestock trends globally. I think the implications for rangeland health are really important here.” She also pointed out that extreme weather patterns like drought and increased wildfire activity could be beneficial areas of future research.

Bruegger, who collaborates with ranchers in Colorado, reiterated that the study underscores the necessity of recognizing historical livestock trends in the West. “Sometimes we have this idea that the numbers of livestock on our public rangelands in the West are constant or maybe they’re increasing, and they’re really not, according to the paper,” she said. “The new work highlights the need to really be engaged with the actual trends that are happening as we think about ecology and landscapes.”

Sala expressed enthusiasm about the research opportunities his study uncovers. He noted that even well-known concepts, like plants’ carbon-trapping capabilities, require further exploration. “We need to find out how much, where, and when. We don’t know,” he said, underscoring the complexity of these interrelationships between livestock management, environmental health, and climate change.