2026 Primary Shock: Why Early Voting Turnout Is Exploding and What It Means for YOU!

AUSTIN, Texas — As early voting comes to a close, Texas is witnessing unprecedented turnout in the primary elections, with Democratic voters surpassing their Republican counterparts in participation. According to Vote Hub, a total of 869,118 Democratic voters have cast their ballots statewide, compared to 732,144 Republican voters. This marks a staggering 276 percent increase in Democratic turnout compared to the same point in the last midterm primary, while Republican turnout has seen a notable 158 percent increase over 2022.

Brian Smith, a professor of political science at St. Edward’s University, indicates that this surge in voter turnout reflects not only heightened enthusiasm but could also have significant implications for the upcoming general election. “Higher voter turnout in the primaries means more excitement for the party, and primary voters are general election voters, so more voters now will translate into the fall,” Smith noted. He emphasized that the competitive landscape of the Texas Senate race is likely fueling this enthusiasm, adding, “it also means that they’re excited by the very close and very expensive Texas Senate race.”

In the Democratic primary, State Representative James Talarico is going head-to-head with U.S. Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett for the party’s nomination. Talarico has underscored his campaign's focus on mobilizing voters across Texas, stating, “We are building a movement to take back the state and this country. We are focusing on mobilizing voters all over the state.”

Meanwhile, Crockett is campaigning statewide, asserting her position as the strongest candidate for the November ballot. She expressed her frustration with questions surrounding her electability, stating, “I am tired of people asking if I am electable. We know that it is nothing but a dog whistle. We know that if we know the history of Texas, the same type of people told Ann Richards, and you can go and Google this, the same type of people who told her she wasn’t electable because she was a woman.”

Recent polling indicates that Crockett holds a slight lead over Talarico. A Texas Politics Project poll shows her ahead, while a Vote Hub poll reports that Crockett has 45 percent of the Democratic primary vote compared to Talarico’s 41 percent. However, Smith cautions that primary polling may not predict the general election outcome accurately. “Not particularly, because they’ve fallen in love with candidates before,” he remarked. He further noted that for Democratic candidates to succeed in November, they need to attract rural voters, independents, and disenchanted Republicans to their cause: “But unless they actually are able to get rural voters, weak Republicans, independent voters to switch over, it might be a close race, but they’ll still end up losing.”

Smith also highlighted that candidates who lead in the primaries often maintain their advantage through Election Day unless there is an unexpected surge in turnout. “If turnout goes way up, meaning there’s a surge on election day, that’s unexpected. That means new voters are coming out,” he explained.

On the Republican side, the turnout is similarly robust, with Vote Hub reporting a 158 percent increase compared to the last midterm primary in 2022. The chair of the Travis County GOP noted that many Republican voters are still gathering information on the numerous candidates appearing on their ballot.

The high turnout rates on both sides signal a potentially transformative election cycle, with implications not only for the primary outcomes but also for the general election in November. As both parties gear up for an intense political battle, the enthusiasm displayed during the primaries could play a crucial role in shaping the political landscape of Texas.